February 2025 | Nextworks
Quantum computing is a type of computing that uses the principles of quantum mechanics — like superposition and entanglement — to process information. Unlike classical computers, which use bits (0s or 1s), quantum computers use quantum bits or qubits. Qubits can exist in multiple states simultaneously, allowing quantum computers to perform complex calculations much faster than classical ones for certain problems. It’s still in early stages but has potential to revolutionize fields like cryptography and material science.
The speed advantage of a quantum computer over a classical one isn’t a simple multiplier—it depends heavily on the problem being solved. For general tasks like browsing the web or running a spreadsheet, a quantum computer isn’t faster at all; it might even be slower due to its specialized nature.
For specific problems, the difference can be staggering. Take Shor’s algorithm for factoring large numbers: a classical supercomputer might take millions of years to crack a 2048-bit RSA encryption key, while a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could do it in hours or even minutes. (Think a speedup of 1010 or more!)
Right now, quantum computers exist in a limited form. Companies like IBM, Google, and D-Wave have built systems that demonstrate quantum effects, like Google's Willow chip showing "quantum supremacy" for a specific task in late 2024, or IBM’s 127-qubit Eagle processor outperforming classical computers in certain simulations back in 2023. These are real, working devices, but they’re noisy, error-prone, and mostly experimental, not yet ready for everyday use.
For practical quantum computing—think machines that reliably solve real-world problems like drug discovery or cracking encryption—experts generally point to a timeline of 5 to 15 years from now, so roughly 2030 to 2040. IBM’s roadmap aims for a 100,000-qubit system by 2033, which they see as a tipping point for broader applications. Microsoft’s betting on 2027-2029 for their first "working" quantum computer, focusing on hybrid systems. Bill Gates, ever the optimist, has suggested 3-5 years from early 2025, landing us around 2028-2030. Meanwhile, McKinsey estimates 5,000 operational quantum computers by 2030, but the hardware and software for tackling the toughest problems might not mature until 2035 or later.
The catch? Progress isn’t linear. Error correction, scaling qubits, and finding killer apps are huge hurdles. Some, like Google’s own experts, caution that commercial-grade systems might not hit until 2030 at the earliest, citing challenges in accuracy and cost. Others think fault-tolerant machines could emerge sooner, maybe 2027-2028, based on recent breakthroughs in logical qubits. It’s a moving target—already real in labs, but likely a decade or so from being transformative outside them.
Quantum computing could shake up cryptocurrency and force an evolution. The threat comes from quantum algorithms which can factor large numbers exponentially faster than classical computers. Most cryptocurrencies, like Bitcoin and Ethereum, rely on public-key cryptography for securing wallets and transactions. A powerful enough quantum computer could reverse-engineer private keys from public ones, breaking that security wide open. For Bitcoin, estimates suggest a quantum machine with a few million qubits could crack a key in minutes, while today’s top classical systems would take longer than the universe’s age.
But we’re not there yet. Current quantum computers are nowhere near the scale needed. Optimistic timelines put that capability at 2030-2035, maybe sooner if breakthroughs hit.
Crypto’s not defenseless, either. Post-quantum cryptography can resist quantum attacks and is already in development. NIST finalized some standards in 2024, and Ethereum’s been eyeing a quantum-resistant shift for years. Bitcoin could fork to adopt new signatures, though it’d be a slow, messy process given its decentralized nature—maybe 5-10 years to transition if the threat looms.
The real risk? If quantum tech arrives suddenly, pre-emptive hacks could drain wallets before upgrades happen. Some guess 10-15% of Bitcoin could be vulnerable early on. But total collapse? This is unlikely. Crypto’s community adapts fast. Quantum might kill off unprepared coins, but the ecosystem would likely pivot, not perish. By 2035, most major currencies could be quantum-proof, assuming the tech’s progress is tracked and countered in time.
Last week, Microsoft announced a huge leap forward in quantum computer technology.
Majorana 1 Explained: The Path to a Million Qubits by Microsoft
However, there is skepticism to Microsoft's claim.
Our takeaway from this thread:
A few things to keep in mind, given how hard of a media push this is being given (which should immediately set off alarm bells in your head that this might be bullshit)
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